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Steel, Aluminum, Copper: What September's Tariff Changes Cost Manufacturers, and Where Refunds Are Coming
September 2026 edition, archived. Tariff News and Trade Intelligence for September 1 through October 1, 2026.
Quick Answer: What Changed for Manufacturers in September 2026?
The change with the biggest cost is Canada: since September 15, 2026, the 50% tariff on Canadian goods covers 122 more product codes, including steel structures and aluminum profiles.
- Canada 50% list: Since September 15, 2026, the 50% tariff on Canadian goods covers 122 more HTS classifications, including steel structures, aluminum profiles, and welding inputs, and it stacks on Section 232.
- Steel framework: The Milwaukee Framework, adopted September 30, 2026, commits governments to coordinate steel trade cases and adds no US tariff rate.
- Copper filings: Since September 14, 2026, ACE rejects copper wire and cable entries that are missing the country of smelt and the country of cast.
- Aluminum refunds: Commerce removed qualifying aluminum can stock from duty orders on 17 countries on September 24, 2026, and refund instructions are expected about October 9, 2026.
- New duty deposits: Preliminary or final duties began in September 2026 on Chinese tin mill steel, rebar from three countries, air compressors, truck bed covers, and graphite electrodes.
- Hydraulic cylinders: Duty cases on cylinders from five countries cleared their first vote on September 30, 2026, and no deposit is owed before November 12, 2026.
- Drones and polysilicon: Drone tariffs of 25% and 100% have been live since September 3, 2026, and polysilicon price floors begin December 4, 2026.
- China exclusions: The 178 China tariff exclusions end at 11:59 p.m. ET on November 9, 2026, even though the wider truce runs to January 10, 2027.
- Confirmed vs. active investigation: Confirmed means a rate, deadline, or legal action is in force or set by a published document. Active investigation means an agency is still gathering evidence toward a future decision.
- Proposed or threatened: An official has said it may happen, but no notice, proclamation, or CBP instruction makes it legally effective.
- ERP rate change: Whether the tariff rate you carry in your purchasing or accounting system should change as of October 1, 2026.
- AD and CVD: Antidumping and countervailing duties, which are extra duties on a specific product from a specific country, set company by company.
- Cash deposit: The estimated duty an importer pays at entry while a trade case is still running.
- Unliquidated entry: An entry whose final duty CBP has not yet settled. Refunds and retroactive duties reach only these entries.
Jump to a Section
Metals
Steel framework, no US rate Canada 50% list change Canada's counter-tariffs Can stock refunds China tin mill steel Rebar orders EU electrical steel Copper filing rejects Refined copper proposalParts and machinery
Hydraulic cylinders Air compressors Truck bed covers China trailers Rail couplers Graphite electrodes Steel cylindersAutos, drones, solar, chips
Mexico tire plant hold Auto rules of origin Canada auto threat Drone tariffs Polysilicon Solar cells Chips October 9, 2026 Aluminum can stock refund instructions expected; Stelco Hamilton wind-down begins
October 14 and 16, 2026 Final votes on solar cells and rail couplers; auto rules of origin hearing
November 9, 2026 178 China tariff exclusions end at 11:59 p.m. ET
December 4, 2026 Polysilicon price floors and 15% tariff begin
Archived Edition: September 2026
This page is a snapshot of the tracker as it stood on October 1, 2026. It is kept for the record and is not updated. For where each item stands after that date, go to the current Manufacturing Tariff Tracker.
How to Read This Tracker
I have spent more than 20 years in procurement, and the question I get most from plant and purchasing teams is simple: does this change what I pay, and what do I do about it? So every item below is laid out the same way. Read the card, not the headline.
- Last updated: the date that card last changed.
- Status and date: where the item stands as of October 1, 2026, and the next date that matters.
- New US tariff: a plain yes or no. Many of the loudest stories in September 2026 were a no.
- Yes and no flags: the specific questions that item raises, answered.
- ERP rate change: whether the rate in your system should change.
- Procurement action: what to do next.
There are 31 cards in six groups, then a table of 25 routine rate changes, then every date ahead.
31 Tariff Changes for Manufacturers, September 1 Through October 1, 2026
Steel and Aluminum: 8 Updates
Steel and aluminum carried the heaviest load in September 2026. Two things are live and cost money: the revised Canada list and the rebar orders. One thing pays money back: aluminum can stock. The rest changes what you ask a supplier, not what you load.
Steel-Producing Governments Agree to Coordinate Trade Cases: The Milwaukee Framework Adds No US Rate
CONFIRMED FRAMEWORK | NO NEW US RATEWhat happened
- What it is: On September 30, 2026, the Global Forum on Steel Excess Capacity adopted the Milwaukee Framework. Members commit to collect and publish country-of-melt-and-pour data, monitor steel imports, cooperate against circumvention, and consider coordinated antidumping, countervailing duty, and safeguard cases, including cases governments open on their own.
- What it reaches: Steel and steel-containing derivative products from sources of excess capacity. Global steel excess capacity is projected to rise from about 601 million metric tons in 2024 to 745 million by 2028.
- October 1, 2026: Reuters reported that 28 mostly Western countries agreed on the sidelines to work toward higher tariffs on steel from China and other excess-capacity sources. That is a policy commitment, not a tariff schedule.
- The wider G20 meeting: The G20 Trade Ministerial closed on October 1, 2026 with no consensus on coordinated responses to industrial overcapacity.
- Next date: Members are to revise the forum's governing terms by December 31, 2026, then act through their own national laws.
Tracker Update -- 90-Day Tariff Risk Calendar → Tariff Calendar
| Last updated | October 1, 2026 |
| Status | Confirmed international enforcement framework |
| Date | September 30, 2026. Next milestone December 31, 2026 |
| New US tariff | No |
| Country-of-melt-and-pour monitoring | Yes |
| AD/CVD and safeguard actions contemplated | Yes |
| Possible self-initiation | Yes |
| Steel-derivative trade measures contemplated | Yes |
| Anti-circumvention coordination | Yes |
| ERP rate change | No. There is no Milwaukee Framework percentage to load |
| Procurement action | Add country of melt and pour, producing mill, and country of later processing to every steel and steel-intensive supplier record. Do not change a supplier award on the framework alone. |
USTR: Ambassador Greer statement following the Global Forum on Steel Excess Capacity ministerial (September 30, 2026)
Global Forum on Steel Excess Capacity: Comprehensive Framework for Joint Action
Canada's 50% Tariff List Changed September 15: Steel Structures, Aluminum Profiles, and Welding Inputs Were Added
CONFIRMED | LIVE SINCE SEPTEMBER 15What happened
- The change: CBP instruction CSMS #69851916 put the September 8, 2026 proclamations into effect at 12:01 a.m. ET on September 15, 2026. It added 122 HTSUS classifications to headings 9903.03.12 and 9903.03.14 and removed 10.
- Added, per my briefings: Iron and steel structures, aluminum profiles, metal fittings, rivets, welding inputs, furniture, electric lamps, golf carts, and all-terrain vehicles.
- Removed: 2208.30.60, 2208.70.00, 2501.00.00 (rock salt), 2523.29.00 (cement), 2940.00.60, 4803.00.40, 4818.90.00, 7801.10.00 (refined lead), 8537.10.91 (switchgear), and 9507.10.00.
- Stacking: Where a product is covered by both, the 50% applies on top of Section 232, and USMCA origin does not remove it.
- The zero-rate heading narrowed: From September 15, only goods subject to 9903.03.13 can claim 9903.03.15. Claiming it without the dutiable heading triggers ACE error F884.
- What the September 29 import ban is not: The ban that began September 29, 2026 covers whey, molasses, non-alcoholic beer, alcoholic beverages, and motorcycles over 800cc (HTS 8711.50.00). It is not a ban on Canadian cars or auto parts.
- A supply note: Cleveland-Cliffs' Stelco begins winding down cold-rolled and coated steel finishing at Hamilton, Ontario on October 9, 2026, with production concentrated at Nanticoke.
Tracker Update -- Tariff Auto-Fill Tool → Section 232 Overlay
| Last updated | September 29, 2026 |
| Status | Confirmed and effective |
| Date | September 15, 2026, 12:01 a.m. ET |
| New US tariff | Yes. Additional 50% under 9903.03.12, 9903.03.13, and 9903.03.14 on the revised list |
| Stacks with Section 232 | Yes |
| USMCA origin removes it | No |
| Old 9903.03.15 mapping carries forward | No |
| One Canada rate for every product | No |
| ERP rate change | Yes. Replace the Canada scope table: add the 122 lines, remove the 10, and revalidate every 9903.03.15 claim |
| Procurement action | Run every Canadian SKU, open PO, and in-transit entry against the September 15 list. Check supplier surcharges by HTS code. Ask Canadian steel suppliers which site will finish cold-rolled and coated product after October 9, 2026. |
CBP CSMS #69851916: revised list of Canadian products subject to Section 338 duties
Federal Register: Proclamation 11065, modifying the scope of Canadian products subject to the additional duties (FR 2026-18839)
CBP CSMS #70050970: certain Canadian products excluded from importation
Canada's Counter-Tariffs on US-Made Steel, Aluminum, and Equipment: 15%, 25%, or 50% Since September 8
CONFIRMED | LIVE SINCE SEPTEMBER 8What happened
- The measure: At 12:01 a.m. on September 8, 2026, Canada began charging product-specific tariffs of 15%, 25%, or 50% on C$27.6 billion of US-origin goods. Goods already in transit that day were excluded.
- Who it hits: US exporters and Canadian plants buying US steel and aluminum, appliances, agricultural equipment, plastics, and electronics. Some steel and aluminum products moved from 25% to 50%.
- Origin test: US origin is decided under Canadian marking rules, not by where the invoice came from.
- Relief: Canada opened a remission process for inputs that cannot be sourced in Canada or reasonably from outside the United States. It is not automatic.
Tracker Update -- Tariff Playbook Suite → Supplier Outreach Tracker
| Last updated | September 8, 2026 |
| Status | Confirmed and effective |
| Date | September 8, 2026 |
| New US tariff | No. This is a Canadian tariff on US exports |
| Goods in transit on September 8 covered | No |
| Remission available | Yes, by application |
| Remission automatic | No |
| ERP rate change | Yes for Canadian import entries. No for US import entries. Keep the full tariff in cost until remission is granted |
| Procurement action | Rank Canada-bound US inputs by annual tariff dollars and by how hard they are to replace. Build remission files for sole-source machinery, engineered parts, and proprietary components. |
Finance Canada: complete list of US products subject to counter-tariffs
Finance Canada: process for requesting remission of tariffs on certain US goods
Aluminum Can Stock Comes Out of Duty Orders on 17 Countries: Refund Instructions Expected About October 9
CONFIRMED | FINAL SEPTEMBER 24, RETROACTIVEWhat happened
- The decision: Commerce's final results, published September 24, 2026, remove qualifying aluminum can stock from the antidumping orders on common alloy aluminum sheet from 17 countries. Countervailing duty orders exist on four of them: China, Bahrain, India, and Turkiye.
- The 17 countries: China, Bahrain, Brazil, Croatia, Egypt, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Oman, Romania, Serbia, Slovenia, South Africa, Spain, Taiwan, and Turkiye.
- What qualifies: Sheet suitable for beverage cans, lids, or tabs, gauge 0.200 mm to 0.292 mm, tempers H-19, H-41, H-48, H-39, or H-391, with lubricant applied. It is generally classified under HTSUS 7606.12.3045 or 7606.12.3055, but the written description controls.
- The clock: Commerce intends to send CBP instructions within 15 days of publication, about October 9, 2026. Relief reaches unliquidated entries back to when liquidation was first suspended under each order.
Tracker Update -- Tariff Refund Suite → Other Remedy Tracker
| Last updated | September 24, 2026 |
| Status | Confirmed. Final partial revocation; CBP refund instructions pending |
| Date | September 24, 2026. CBP instructions about October 9, 2026 |
| New US tariff | No. A duty was removed |
| Retroactive to unliquidated entries | Yes |
| Already-liquidated entries covered | No |
| HTS code alone decides eligibility | No |
| ERP rate change | Yes, for qualifying can stock only. Remove the AD and CVD layers |
| Procurement action | Pull every can stock entry from the 17 countries with entry date, liquidation status, gauge, temper, lubricant spec, and AD and CVD deposits. Hold refunds in a separate recovery account. |
Chinese Tinplate and Tin-Free Steel: Preliminary Duty Deposits of 130.17% and 66.61% Are Being Collected
CONFIRMED | PRELIMINARY DEPOSITS IN EFFECTWhat happened
- Countervailing duty: 66.61% for Shougang Holding Trade, Shougang Jingtang, and all other Chinese producers, published September 15, 2026, with critical circumstances.
- Antidumping: A 136.52% China-wide preliminary margin, collected as a 130.17% adjusted cash deposit, published September 21, 2026.
- Retroactive reach: Critical circumstances pull unliquidated entries back to mid-June 2026 into the deposit requirement.
- Next dates: Commerce final determinations November 30, 2026. USITC final-phase hearing December 4, 2026.
Tracker Update -- Tariff Impact Automation Suite → Tariff Rates
| Last updated | September 21, 2026 |
| Status | Preliminary affirmative AD and CVD determinations |
| Date | September 15 and September 21, 2026. Finals November 30, 2026 |
| New US tariff | Yes. Preliminary cash deposits: 130.17% AD and 66.61% CVD |
| Critical circumstances (retroactive) | Yes |
| Add the two headline percentages together | No. Use the entry-level deposit instruction |
| ERP rate change | Yes. Load both deposit layers by producer and flag June 2026 forward entries |
| Procurement action | Get the upstream mill and exporter for every tinplate and tin-free steel SKU, including what you buy through converters and packaging suppliers. Qualify an alternate mill where exposure is material. |
Federal Register: tin mill products from China, preliminary CVD determination (FR 2026-18792)
Federal Register: tin mill products from China, preliminary AD determination (FR 2026-19274)
USITC: tin mill products, final-phase schedule
Rebar From Bulgaria, Egypt, and Vietnam: Final Duty Orders Took Effect September 18
CONFIRMED | FINAL ORDERSWhat happened
- Antidumping orders: Bulgaria 53.27%. Egypt 34.20% to 52.73%. Vietnam 123.49% for Hoa Phat and 131.53% Vietnam-wide, after subsidy offsets.
- Countervailing duty orders: Egypt 23.27% and Vietnam 6.80%.
- The gap period: Entries from September 9 through September 17, 2026 liquidate without the antidumping duty. For Egypt and Vietnam, the countervailing gap runs from May 13 through September 17, 2026.
Tracker Update -- Tariff Auto-Fill Tool → Master Rate Table
| Last updated | September 18, 2026 |
| Status | Confirmed. Final AD and CVD orders |
| Date | September 18, 2026 |
| New US tariff | Yes. Final cash deposit rates listed above |
| Gap-period entries owe the duty | No |
| ERP rate change | Yes. Move from investigation to order rates by producer |
| Procurement action | Confirm the actual mill on every rebar PO. Ask your broker to apply the gap-period treatment to qualifying entries and check any supplier surcharge against it. |
Federal Register: rebar antidumping duty orders (FR 2026-19102)
Federal Register: rebar countervailing duty orders (FR 2026-19103)
Commerce: final rebar antidumping and countervailing duty determinations
EU Limits on Electrical Steel and Transformer Cores Went Live September 25: Quotas Plus Price Floors Through February 26, 2027
CONFIRMED | LIVE EU MEASUREWhat happened
- The measure: EU Regulation 2026/2133 applies a provisional safeguard for 155 days, from September 25, 2026 through February 26, 2027, on grain-oriented electrical steel (CN 7225 11 00 and 7226 11 00) and on laminations and cores (CN 8504 90 13).
- How the duty works: There is no flat rate. The duty is the gap between a price threshold and your import price. Electrical steel: 2,800 to 3,400 euros per tonne inside quota, 3,500 outside. Laminations: 4,000 inside, 4,550 outside. Standalone cores: 5,000 inside, 5,600 outside.
- Cores inside transformers: A core built into an imported transformer is charged a fixed 1,140 euros per tonne of core, with no quota.
- Quotas: Country quotas are first come, first served. Electrical steel: China 30,693.68 tonnes, Japan 23,103.61, South Korea 4,789.93, others 5,360.39.
Tracker Update -- Tariff Impact Automation Suite → Tariff Rates
| Last updated | September 25, 2026 |
| Status | Confirmed and effective (provisional safeguard) |
| Date | September 25, 2026 through February 26, 2027 |
| New US tariff | No. This is an EU import measure |
| Cores inside transformers included | Yes |
| Flat percentage rate | No |
| Existing EU antidumping duty stacked on top | No, where Article 6 applies |
| Quota first come, first served | Yes |
| ERP rate change | Yes for EU-bound flows. Load the price-threshold logic, not a single percentage |
| Procurement action | Add EU quota status at expected entry to every affected sourcing event. Ask transformer suppliers for core weight before the next shipment. |
European Commission: provisional safeguard on grain-oriented electrical steel
EUR-Lex: Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2026/2133
EU Moves to Restrict Aluminum Scrap Exports: The 15% Export Duty Idea Is Gone, a May 21, 2027 Limit Is Coming
PROPOSED | DRAFT LIST PUBLISHEDWhat happened
- September 12, 2026: The EU dropped a proposed 15% export duty on aluminum scrap.
- September 18, 2026: The Commission published a draft country list under the Waste Shipment Regulation instead. India has no metal-waste exemption in the current draft.
- Dates: Consultation closes October 16, 2026. The final list is due November 21, 2026. Restrictions on non-hazardous waste exports to non-OECD countries apply May 21, 2027.
Tracker Update -- 90-Day Tariff Risk Calendar → Monthly Watchlist
| Last updated | September 18, 2026 |
| Status | Proposed. Commission draft list published |
| Date | October 16, 2026 (consultation closes). May 21, 2027 (restrictions apply) |
| New US tariff | No |
| 15% EU scrap export duty | Withdrawn |
| India exempt in current draft | No |
| ERP rate change | No. Remove any 15% export duty scenario |
| Procurement action | Ask aluminum and recycled-metal suppliers whether European scrap is in their feedstock, and what the fallback is: other scrap or primary metal. |
Load the Canada list and the new duty orders once. The Tariff Auto-Fill Tool keeps Section 232, Section 301, and country overlays in one rate workbook, so a 122-line list change is a table update instead of a week of lookups. $97
Copper and Section 232: 3 Updates
One of these is a filing rule that stops an entry cold. The other two are proposals, and I keep proposals out of the rate table until a legal document exists.
Copper Wire and Cable Entries Are Rejected Without Smelt and Cast Countries
CONFIRMED | LIVE SINCE SEPTEMBER 14What happened
- The rule: Since September 14, 2026 (CSMS #69711865), ACE rejects entries of copper wire and cable under HTSUS 8544.42.10, 8544.42.20, 8544.42.90, and 8544.49.10 when the primary country of smelt and the country of cast are missing. The error is F794.
- Unknown origin: The code OTH is allowed when the country is truly unknown.
- What it is not: A new tariff rate. It is a filing failure that holds your goods.
Tracker Update -- Tariff Auto-Fill Tool → Section 232 Overlay
| Last updated | September 14, 2026 |
| Status | Confirmed and effective. Active ACE enforcement |
| Date | September 14, 2026 |
| New US tariff | No. Filing requirement |
| Primary country of smelt required | Yes |
| Country of cast required | Yes |
| Secondary smelt country required | No, optional |
| OTH allowed when unknown | Yes |
| ERP rate change | No rate. Add mandatory smelt and cast country fields on the four HTS lines |
| Procurement action | Collect smelt and cast countries at supplier onboarding. Set an internal approval step for any use of OTH and keep the paper behind it. |
CBP CSMS #69711865: copper smelt and cast country error code update
Refined Copper Tariff: 15% From January 2027 Is Still Only a Proposal
PROPOSED | DECISION PENDINGWhat happened
- Where it stands: Reporting on September 10, 2026 said the White House decision had stalled. Nothing has been issued since.
- What is under consideration: 15% on refined copper from January 2027, rising to 30% in 2028. Ores, concentrates, cathodes, and anodes were left out of the original Section 232 copper tariff.
- The real cost in the meantime: Not a duty. It is the price premium the market builds in while it waits.
Tracker Update -- 90-Day Tariff Risk Calendar → Monthly Watchlist
| Last updated | September 10, 2026 |
| Status | Reported proposal. No final decision |
| Date | None set. January 2027 is a scenario date only |
| New US tariff | No |
| Final presidential action issued | No |
| Load 15% into ERP | No |
| Scenario modeling | Yes, at 15% and 30% |
| ERP rate change | No |
| Procurement action | Split copper spend into articles already covered and refined inputs exposed to an expansion. Keep legal tariff and market premium in separate fields. Do not approve an inventory build on a tariff that does not exist. |
Reuters via MarketScreener: White House copper tariff plan stalls
14 More Metal Products Could Join the Steel, Aluminum, and Copper Tariffs: No Decision Yet
PROPOSED | DECISION PENDINGWhat happened
- Where it stands: The Commerce comment period closed August 27, 2026. No final action and no decision date have been announced.
- The 14 products: Aluminum powder, brass instruments and parts, welding machine components, floor safes, electric conductor cables, fire extinguishers, heat exchanger parts, hydraulic engine and motor parts, mobile lifting frames and straddle carriers, self-propelled cranes, tanker and agricultural trailers, and filled propane, oxygen, and propylene containers.
- Proposed rates: 15% to 50%, by product and country.
Tracker Update -- 90-Day Tariff Risk Calendar → Monthly Watchlist
| Last updated | September 2, 2026 |
| Status | Proposed. Comment period closed |
| Date | August 27, 2026 (comments closed). No decision date |
| New US tariff | No |
| Final action issued | No |
| ERP rate change | No. Nothing to load until a final action |
| Procurement action | Check whether you import or distribute any of the 14 categories. A decision can arrive with no notice, so know your exposure by HTS code and country before it does. |
See the open copper and Section 232 threads in one place. The free 90-Day Tariff Risk Calendar holds undated proposals in the Monthly Watchlist and moves them to the Tariff Calendar the day they get a date. Free
Components, Parts, and Machinery: 7 Trade Cases
These are duty cases on things you bolt into a product or run a plant with. In every one, the rate belongs to a producer, not a country. Ask who made it before you ask what the rate is.
Hydraulic Cylinder Duty Cases on Five Countries Cleared Their First Vote September 30
ACTIVE INVESTIGATION | NO PAYABLE RATEWhat happened
- The vote: On September 30, 2026, the USITC made affirmative preliminary injury determinations on linear hydraulic cylinders and parts. Antidumping cases continue on Canada, China, India, Mexico, and South Korea. Countervailing duty cases continue on China, India, and Mexico.
- Alleged margins, not payable rates: Canada 248.33% to 744.85%. China 103.05% to 440.48%. India 85.31% to 370.67%. South Korea 73.09% to 158.74%. Mexico 56.79% to 157.12%.
- Next dates: Commerce preliminary CVD determinations November 12, 2026. Preliminary AD determinations January 26, 2027. Both can be extended. Products fall under HTSUS 8412.21 and 8412.90.
Tracker Update -- Tariff Playbook Suite → Supplier Outreach Tracker
| Last updated | September 30, 2026 |
| Status | Active investigation. USITC preliminary affirmative |
| Date | September 30, 2026. Next November 12, 2026 and January 26, 2027 |
| New US tariff | No. No cash deposit rate exists yet |
| Petition margins payable | No. Scenario and severity indicator only |
| Supplier mapping | Start before November 12, 2026 |
| ERP rate change | No |
| Procurement action | Map every cylinder by producer, exporter, origin, part number, equipment application, annual spend, and requalification lead time. Flag long-lead equipment arriving after November 12, 2026. |
Commerce: initiation of AD and CVD investigations, linear hydraulic cylinders and parts
USITC: vote, linear hydraulic cylinders, September 30, 2026
Air Compressors From China, Malaysia, and Vietnam: Preliminary Subsidy Duties Up to 112.29%
CONFIRMED | PRELIMINARY CVDWhat happened
- Announced September 29, 2026: Preliminary countervailing duty rates on stationary and portable air compressors. Deposits begin when the notice publishes in the Federal Register.
- Rates: China 3.84% for all others and 112.29% for certain non-responsive companies. Malaysia 92.86%. Vietnam 37.20% for all others, 74.39% for certain companies, and 0.35% (too small to collect) for Hybest-Vietnam.
- Next date: Final determinations February 11, 2027, aligned with the companion antidumping cases, unless postponed.
Tracker Update -- Tariff Impact Automation Suite → Tariff Rates
| Last updated | September 29, 2026 |
| Status | Preliminary affirmative CVD. Companion AD cases active |
| Date | September 29, 2026. Finals February 11, 2027 |
| New US tariff | Yes. Preliminary CVD cash deposits by company |
| Concurrent AD cases | Active |
| Supplier-specific rates | Required |
| ERP rate change | Yes. Load country and company rates, and keep Hybest-Vietnam separate |
| Procurement action | Identify the producer and exporter on every compressor PO. A Vietnam supplier can be at 0.35% or 74.39%. |
Commerce: preliminary CVD determinations, stationary and portable air compressors
Truck Bed Covers From China: Preliminary Dumping Deposits of 46.77% to 107.41%
CONFIRMED | PRELIMINARY ADWhat happened
- Announced September 29, 2026: Adjusted antidumping cash deposits of 51.17% for Hangzhou Golden Sun, 46.77% for Wenzhou Tianmao and Wenzhou Chaoming, 49.38% for certain separate-rate companies, and 107.41% for the China-wide entity.
- Companion subsidy case: Preliminary countervailing rates of 8.72%, 30.38%, 100.95%, and 20.25% for all others.
- Next dates: Commerce final CVD determination about October 13, 2026 unless postponed. Final AD determination about February 15, 2027.
Tracker Update -- Tariff Impact Automation Suite → Tariff Rates
| Last updated | September 29, 2026 |
| Status | Preliminary affirmative AD. Companion CVD case active |
| Date | September 29, 2026 |
| New US tariff | Yes. Preliminary cash deposits by producer and exporter pair |
| Companion CVD case | Active |
| Producer and exporter mapping | Required |
| ERP rate change | Yes. Map AD and CVD separately by producer and exporter |
| Procurement action | Price each cover by the producer and exporter pairing. There is no single China truck bed cover rate. |
Commerce: preliminary AD determination, truck bed covers from China
Commerce: preliminary CVD determination, truck bed covers from China
Chinese Van-Type Trailers: 129.73% and 134.75% Duties Are Moving to Final Orders
CONFIRMED | ORDERS FORTHCOMINGWhat happened
- The vote: On September 25, 2026, the USITC made a final affirmative injury determination on van-type trailers and subassemblies from China (Inv. 701-TA-781 and 731-TA-1768). Earlier calendars listed Canada and Mexico; the case is China only.
- Rates: A 130.86% dumping margin collected as a 129.73% adjusted cash deposit, and a 134.75% countervailing rate, China-wide.
- Scope reach: Processing Chinese frames, walls, doors, or running gear in a third country does not by itself take a trailer out of scope.
- Next: Commerce orders and CBP instructions. The USITC report is due November 5, 2026.
Tracker Update -- Tariff Impact Automation Suite → Tariff Rates
| Last updated | September 25, 2026 |
| Status | Final affirmative USITC determination. Orders forthcoming |
| Date | September 25, 2026. USITC report November 5, 2026 |
| New US tariff | Yes. 129.73% AD cash deposit and 134.75% CVD |
| AD order | Commerce will issue |
| CVD order | Commerce will issue |
| Canada and Mexico origin covered | No. China only |
| ERP rate change | Yes once orders issue. Use the Commerce and CBP instructions; do not stack headline percentages by hand |
| Procurement action | Run a bill-of-materials origin review on trailers and subassemblies. Update fleet capital plans. |
USITC: van-type trailers and subassemblies from China injure US industry (September 25, 2026)
Commerce: final AD and CVD determinations, van-type trailers from China
Freight Rail Couplers From the Czech Republic and India: Final Vote October 16
CONFIRMED | FINAL INJURY VOTE PENDINGWhat happened
- Commerce final rates: Czech Republic antidumping 73.74% for CKD Kutna Hora and all others. India antidumping 71.01% for Bhilai and Jupiter, 12.10% for Texmaco, 1.55% for all others, and a 0% adjusted deposit for Kharagpur.
- India subsidy rates: 9.71% for Kharagpur and all others, and 75% for Texmaco, Bhilai, and Jupiter. These resume only if the USITC votes yes.
- Next date: USITC final injury vote at 11:00 a.m. ET on October 16, 2026.
Tracker Update -- 90-Day Tariff Risk Calendar → Tariff Calendar
| Last updated | September 22, 2026 |
| Status | Commerce final determinations issued. USITC final vote pending |
| Date | October 16, 2026 |
| New US tariff | Yes. AD cash deposits are in effect; India CVD is conditional on the vote |
| Country average usable | No. Rates run from 0% to 75% by company |
| ERP rate change | Yes. Update AD deposits by company and hold the India CVD layer as conditional |
| Procurement action | Tie each coupler PO to the actual manufacturer, exporter, case, deposit, and an approved substitute supplier. |
Graphite Electrodes From China and India: New Dumping Deposits Reach Back to July 2
CONFIRMED | PRELIMINARY AD, RETROACTIVEWhat happened
- Published September 30, 2026: Preliminary antidumping determinations on large-diameter graphite electrodes, with critical circumstances for all covered Chinese and Indian exporters.
- Rates: China 98.79%, collected as a 95.61% adjusted cash deposit for the China-wide entity. India adjusted deposits of 9.88% for Graphite India, 1.15% for HEG, and 3.53% for all others.
- Retroactive reach: Unliquidated entries back to July 2, 2026. This antidumping layer sits on top of the existing countervailing duty exposure.
Tracker Update -- Tariff Impact Automation Suite → Tariff Rates
| Last updated | September 30, 2026 |
| Status | Preliminary affirmative AD with critical circumstances |
| Date | September 30, 2026. Reaches back to July 2, 2026 |
| New US tariff | Yes. Preliminary AD cash deposits by producer |
| Critical circumstances (retroactive) | Yes |
| Added to existing CVD exposure | Yes |
| ERP rate change | Yes. Add the AD layer by producer for entries from July 2, 2026 |
| Procurement action | If you run an electric arc furnace or buy from one, review unliquidated electrode entries since July 2, 2026 for the stacked AD and CVD exposure. |
Duties on Chinese Non-Refillable Steel Cylinders Stay: Orders Continued September 29
CONFIRMED | ORDERS CONTINUEDWhat happened
- The vote: On September 29, 2026, the USITC found that ending the antidumping and countervailing duty orders would likely bring the injury back (Inv. 701-TA-644 and 731-TA-1494). The orders continue.
- What it means: No new rate. A duty layer some buyers hoped would expire did not.
- Next date: USITC public report expected November 8, 2026.
Tracker Update -- Tariff Auto-Fill Tool → Master Rate Table
| Last updated | September 29, 2026 |
| Status | Existing orders continued after sunset review |
| Date | September 29, 2026 |
| New US tariff | No |
| AD/CVD expiration | No |
| New rate created by sunset review | No |
| Current order treatment | Continue |
| ERP rate change | No. Do not zero out or expire the layer |
| Procurement action | Keep producer-specific deposits in landed cost. Any project that was waiting on these orders to end needs a new number. |
USITC: non-refillable steel cylinders from China, sunset determination (September 29, 2026)
Carry the producer rate down to the SKU. The Tariff Impact Automation Suite ties each part number to its supplier, HTS code, and duty layers, so a producer-specific deposit lands on the right line. $199
Autos and North American Parts: 3 Updates
Nothing in this group changed a rate. All three change what you need to know about your suppliers before a rate does change.
A Mexican Tire Plant Is Under a Labor Enforcement Hold: Entries From Yokohama's Coahuila Facility Will Not Liquidate
CONFIRMED | LIQUIDATION SUSPENDEDWhat happened
- The action: On September 25, 2026, USTR invoked the USMCA Rapid Response Labor Mechanism against Yokohama Tire Manufacturing Mexico in Coahuila. Liquidation of all entries from that facility is suspended until further notice.
- What it is not: A new tariff or an import ban. It is a facility-level hold that can later lead to loss of USMCA preference, penalties, or denial of entry.
- A second file closed: On September 28, 2026, USTR announced the Akwel Juarez matter resolved and liquidation resumed.
Tracker Update -- Tariff Playbook Suite → Supplier Outreach Tracker
| Last updated | September 28, 2026 |
| Status | Open enforcement file. Liquidation suspended |
| Date | September 25, 2026 |
| New US tariff | No |
| Import ban | No |
| Liquidation of entries | Suspended until further notice |
| Country-level Mexico tariff change | No |
| Supplier-facility mapping | Immediate |
| ERP rate change | No. Add an unliquidated-entry flag; do not invent a rate |
| Procurement action | Record the exact producing plant for every Mexican supplier, not just the supplier name. Do not cancel or re-source on the hold alone. |
USTR: United States seeks Mexico's review at Yokohama Tire Manufacturing Mexico
US-Mexico Talks Are Stuck on Auto Content: The USITC Hearing on Auto Rules of Origin Is October 14
ACTIVE NEGOTIATION | NO RATE CHANGEWhat happened
- Where talks stand: The fourth US-Mexico round ended without agreement. The sticking points are a US demand for 50% US-made automotive content and Mexico's request for relief on steel, aluminum, and auto tariffs. No fifth round is dated.
- What stays: USMCA treatment is unchanged, and the existing tariffs on Mexican steel, aluminum, and autos remain.
- Dates: USITC hearing on automotive rules of origin at 9:30 a.m. ET on October 14, 2026. Post-hearing briefs October 21, 2026. Other written submissions November 2, 2026.
Tracker Update -- 90-Day Tariff Risk Calendar → Comment & Hearing Tracker
| Last updated | September 30, 2026 |
| Status | USMCA in force. Negotiations and fact-finding active |
| Date | October 14, 2026 (hearing) |
| New US tariff | No |
| New published tariff rate | No |
| CBP implementation of any deal | No |
| Current USMCA treatment change | No |
| ERP rate change | No. Do not remove valid USMCA preference |
| Procurement action | Keep current USMCA qualification and a future rules-of-origin scenario as two separate fields. Collect US content, steel and aluminum origin, and third-country content from Mexican suppliers. |
USITC: USMCA automotive rules of origin investigation
Federal Register: USMCA Automotive Rules of Origin, 2027 Report (hearing schedule)
A 50% Tariff on Canadian Cars, Parts, and Steel in January 2027 Is a Threat, Not a Rule
THREATENED | NOT IMPLEMENTEDWhat happened
- Where it stands: A 50% tariff on Canadian autos, trucks, and auto parts from January 1, 2027 was announced on social media on August 24, 2026. Later reporting added steel. No proclamation or Federal Register notice exists.
- Why it still matters: Toyota and Honda build more than three-quarters of Canada's vehicles, and tier 1 and tier 2 parts plants feed US lines daily.
Tracker Update -- Tariff Scenario Strategy Kit → Scenario Mapping
| Last updated | September 25, 2026 |
| Status | Threatened. No legal instrument |
| Date | January 1, 2027 (scenario only) |
| New US tariff | No |
| Legal action issued | No |
| ERP rate change | No. Do not accrue it |
| Procurement action | Run a 50% stress case across finished vehicles and the parts bill of materials. Map Canadian plant, tier, annual spend, US content, tooling, and alternate capacity. |
Log every supplier answer in one place. The Tariff Playbook Suite tracks who you asked, what they said, and what is still open, plant by plant. $27
Drones, Solar Inputs, and Chips: 4 Updates
Two live Section 232 programs, one case a single vote away from final orders, and one chip tariff that exists only as a plan.
Drone Tariffs of 25% and 100% Are Live: Most Components Follow on February 9, 2027
CONFIRMED | LIVE SINCE SEPTEMBER 3What happened
- Live since 12:01 a.m. ET on September 3, 2026: 100% under heading 9903.08.21 on drones over 25 kg, drones with thermal imagers, docking stations, and listed critical components. 25% under heading 9903.08.22 on other listed drones.
- Partner caps: Qualifying products from EU member states, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Switzerland, and Liechtenstein are capped at 15% combined. Qualifying UK products are capped at 10%. Both need certification of where the hardware, software, and technology come from.
- Next phase: A third list of components moves to 25% on February 9, 2027.
Tracker Update -- Tariff Auto-Fill Tool → Section 232 Overlay
| Last updated | September 3, 2026 |
| Status | Confirmed and effective |
| Date | September 3, 2026. Component phase February 9, 2027 |
| New US tariff | Yes. 100% (9903.08.21) and 25% (9903.08.22) |
| Third component list already tariffed | No. February 9, 2027 |
| Partner cap automatic | No. Certification required |
| ERP rate change | Yes. Keep two component statuses, live and February 9, 2027, so the future 25% is not applied early |
| Procurement action | Audit every drone entry from September 3, 2026 for take-off weight, thermal imaging, docking, HTS code, and component origin. Challenge any supplier charging a 25% drone tariff across all parts. |
White House: proclamation adjusting imports of unmanned aircraft systems and components (August 13, 2026)
White House fact sheet: tariffs on drones and their parts and components
Polysilicon: A Stockpiling Limit Is Live, and Price Floors Start December 4
CONFIRMED | RULE LIVE, TARIFF DECEMBER 4What happened
- In effect: A temporary rule in effect from September 22 through December 3, 2026 (CSMS #69994928, published September 24, 2026) limits import volumes before the tariff starts. Established importers are measured against their history. New importers of record face weekly caps: 12 kg under HTS 2804.61.00, 7 kg on listed 3818.00 lines, 2,000 solar cells under 8541.42.00, and 55 modules under 8541.43.00.
- December 4, 2026: Minimum import prices of $21 per kg for polysilicon, $100 per kg for ingots and wafers, $0.22 per watt for solar cells, and $0.38 per watt for modules, plus an additional 15% on listed ingots and derivatives, subject to partner treatment.
- If paperwork is missing: A specific tariff equal to the minimum price can apply, and inaccurate certifications can bar future imports.
Tracker Update -- Tariff Scenario Strategy Kit → Scenario Mapping
| Last updated | September 24, 2026 |
| Status | Anti-stockpiling rule live. Section 232 regime confirmed for December 4, 2026 |
| Date | September 22 through December 3, 2026. Then December 4, 2026 |
| New US tariff | No, not until December 4, 2026 |
| Existing importer volume monitoring | Yes |
| New importer restrictions | Yes |
| Import prohibition possible before December 4 | Yes |
| Waiver process | Yes, through Commerce |
| Tariff-rate change from the stockpiling rule | No |
| ERP rate change | No rate before December 4, 2026. Do not model December 4 as a single 15% field |
| Procurement action | Do not route volume through a new or affiliated importer of record. Link PO price, entered value, first US sale price, product form, and supplier certification before December arrivals. |
White House: Adjusting Imports of Polysilicon and Its Derivatives (Proclamation 11052)
CBP CSMS #69994928: polysilicon anti-stockpiling guidance
Solar Cells From India, Indonesia, and Laos: Final Vote October 14
CONFIRMED | FINAL INJURY VOTE PENDINGWhat happened
- Where it stands: Commerce issued final affirmative antidumping and countervailing duty determinations in September 2026. Rates are producer-specific, and several are above 100%.
- Indonesia: The determination carries partial critical circumstances, so some entries before publication are exposed.
- Next dates: USITC final injury vote at 11:00 a.m. ET on October 14, 2026. If the vote is yes, orders follow in early November 2026.
Tracker Update -- 90-Day Tariff Risk Calendar → Tariff Calendar
| Last updated | September 16, 2026 |
| Status | Commerce final issued. USITC final vote pending |
| Date | October 14, 2026 |
| New US tariff | No final order yet. Producer-specific deposits apply |
| Final orders in place | No |
| One solar tariff field for polysilicon and cells | No. Keep them separate |
| ERP rate change | Hold the final-order update until the vote. Flag as pending October 14, 2026 |
| Procurement action | Manage by cell producer, exporter, and cell origin, not by where the module was assembled. Keep alternate bids open on projects the duty would break. |
Commerce: final AD and CVD determinations, solar cells from India, Indonesia, and Laos
USITC: vote, crystalline silicon photovoltaic cells, October 14, 2026
A Wider Chip Tariff and a Memory Chip Import Case: Both Are Proposals With No Rate
PROPOSED | NO RATE, NO DATEWhat happened
- Chip tariff, phase two: The Commerce Secretary confirmed on September 2, 2026 that a second phase is planned. It is not a proclamation. The current tariff is 25% on a limited group of advanced AI chips. Reports that servers and laptops could be pulled in are unconfirmed.
- Memory chips: A Section 337 investigation on DRAM devices was instituted September 22, 2026, and a separate complaint drew a comment deadline of October 9, 2026. No import ban has been issued.
Tracker Update -- 90-Day Tariff Risk Calendar → Monthly Watchlist
| Last updated | September 30, 2026 |
| Status | Proposed policy direction. Section 337 investigation active |
| Date | No effective date. Comments due October 9, 2026 on the new complaint |
| New US tariff | No |
| Import ban issued | No |
| ERP rate change | No |
| Procurement action | Separate bare chips from servers, storage, and other chip-containing equipment in your spend data, and know which suppliers make chips outside the United States. |
Plan the December 4 and October 14 clocks side by side. The Tariff Scenario Strategy Kit scores each scenario next to your other exposures, so a future rate never slips into the budget before it is legal. $449
China, Russia, and Broad Programs That Reach Your Inputs: 6 Updates
I only included these where my briefings tie them to metals, components, parts, or machinery. Each one changes a date or a field in your records, and one of them opens a refund window.
178 China Tariff Exclusions End November 9, and a Pump Parts Fix Opens a Refund Window
CONFIRMED | CUTOFF NOVEMBER 9What happened
- The cutoff: The 178 Section 301 exclusions under headings 9903.88.69 (164) and 9903.88.70 (14 for solar manufacturing equipment) run through 11:59 p.m. ET on November 9, 2026. The US-China truce extension did not move this date.
- What comes back: 25% on Lists 1 to 3 goods or 7.5% on List 4A goods, with no transition. Eligibility turns on the entry date, not the ship date.
- The fix: CSMS #69990649 corrected the reporting numbers under 9903.88.69 for pump parts (8413.91.9039, .9046, .9059, .9099) and plastics articles (3926.90.9915, .9920). ACE was updated at noon ET on September 23, 2026.
- The refund window: Entries filed July 1 through September 22, 2026 on those codes can be corrected to recover Section 301 duty paid.
Tracker Update -- Tariff Refund Suite → Other Remedy Tracker
| Last updated | September 23, 2026 |
| Status | Exclusions active. Cutoff confirmed |
| Date | November 9, 2026, 11:59 p.m. ET |
| New US tariff | No. Existing duty returns if the exclusions lapse |
| Truce extension moves the exclusion date | No |
| Pump parts and plastics correction refundable | Yes, by Post Summary Correction or protest |
| ERP rate change | No rate change before the cutoff. Add a November 9, 2026 sunset flag and update the six reporting numbers |
| Procurement action | List every exclusion-dependent SKU with its underlying rate and inventory runway. File corrections on the July 1 through September 22, 2026 pump parts and plastics entries. |
Federal Register: notice of product exclusion extensions, China Section 301 (FR 2025-21671)
Federal Register: conforming amendments to product exclusions, China Section 301 (FR 2026-17925)
The US-China Truce Was Extended to January 10, 2027, but Rare Earth Deliveries Are Still Short
CONFIRMED EXTENSION | NO RATE CHANGEWhat happened
- The extension: Announced September 23 and 24, 2026. The broad truce date moved from November 10, 2026 to January 10, 2027.
- The 30-for-30 lists: Published September 27, 2026. The US list is 77 HTSUS lines of consumer goods. Chips, electric vehicles, and batteries were left out. No reduced rate is in effect.
- Rare earths: US officials say deliveries are lagging. Gallium and germanium prices were reported at about 9 to 10 times their 2023 level.
Tracker Update -- Tariff Scenario Strategy Kit → Scenario Mapping
| Last updated | September 27, 2026 |
| Status | Truce extended. Relief lists published, not implemented |
| Date | January 10, 2027 (truce) |
| New US tariff | No |
| Product candidate population | Yes |
| Current tariff modification | No |
| Rare earth supply resolved | No |
| Tariff-only model adequate for critical minerals | No |
| ERP rate change | No |
| Procurement action | For rare-earth-dependent parts, track export license, supplier allocation, shipment, and inventory as separate fields from the tariff. A lower tariff does not fix a material you cannot get. |
White House: US-China Board of Trade and the 30-for-30 lists
USTR: Ambassador Greer statement on the Board of Trade recommendations (September 27, 2026)
CNBC: US-China trade truce extended for two months
The 10% and 12.5% Forced-Labor Tariffs Do Not Stack on Steel, Aluminum, or Copper Already Under Section 232
CONFIRMED | COURT CHALLENGE PENDINGWhat happened
- The tariff: In force since July 24, 2026 on 60 economies, at 10% or 12.5% depending on the country, with special treatment for certain goods from the EU, Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, and Switzerland.
- The carve-out that matters to builders: Articles and parts of articles subject to Section 232 tariffs are exempt.
- The court case: The Court of International Trade heard argument on September 30, 2026 and did not rule. The tariff is still collected.
Tracker Update -- Tariff Auto-Fill Tool → Section 301 Overlay
| Last updated | September 30, 2026 |
| Status | Tariff active. Court challenge under review |
| Date | In force since July 24, 2026. Hearing held September 30, 2026 |
| New US tariff | No |
| Court ruling issued | No |
| CBP collection stopped | No |
| Section 232 exemption | Retain where applicable |
| Recovery tracking | Yes, contingent only |
| ERP rate change | No. Do not stack the 10% or 12.5% on Section 232 articles and parts |
| Procurement action | Keep paying. Keep entry number, entry date, HTS code, duty paid, and liquidation status for every entry. Do not book a receivable. |
USTR: forced-labor Section 301 action, final rates and treatment
US Court of International Trade: courthouse activities report, Section 301 Forced Labor Cases
Up to 100% on Goods From Countries Buying Russian Energy: The Law Is Signed, the Rates Are Due October 18
CONFIRMED LAW | RATES NOT PUBLISHEDWhat happened
- The law: H.R. 5334, signed September 18, 2026 as Public Law 119-111. It allows up to 500% on Russian-origin goods and up to 100% on all goods from countries designated for buying Russian energy or helping evade sanctions.
- The deadline: 30 days from signing, which is October 18, 2026. No rate and no country list has been published.
- Why builders care: Any new duty stacks on top of Section 232 and AD/CVD. India and China are the exposure cases to test.
Tracker Update -- Tariff Scenario Strategy Kit → Scenario Mapping
| Last updated | September 18, 2026 |
| Status | Enacted. Implementing tariffs pending |
| Date | October 18, 2026 |
| New US tariff | No |
| China designated at 100% | No |
| India designated at 100% | No |
| Stacks with existing duties | Yes |
| ERP rate change | No until a country and rate are published |
| Procurement action | Stress-test India and China categories at plus 25, 50, and 100 points, starting with single-source materials, engineered components, and long-qualification parts. Do not rush shipments. |
White House: H.R. 5334 signed into law September 18, 2026
GovInfo: H.R. 5334 enrolled text, sections 112 through 115
A New China Tariff for Overproduction Is Still Under Investigation: The 7.5% Figure Is Unverified
ACTIVE INVESTIGATION | NO RATEWhat happened
- The investigation: USTR's Section 301 cases on structural excess capacity cover 16 economies and sectors that include steel, aluminum, machinery, autos, batteries, semiconductors, electronics, and solar.
- The number: A 7.5% China tariff was reported as under consideration. Reuters could not verify it, and no remedy has been published.
- A signal: USTR said tariff caps in existing trade deals will be taken into account in any remedy.
- No help from the G20: Trade ministers ended their October 1, 2026 meeting without agreeing on a joint response to industrial overcapacity, so any remedy comes from the US case alone.
Tracker Update -- 90-Day Tariff Risk Calendar → Monthly Watchlist
| Last updated | October 1, 2026 |
| Status | Active investigation. No remedy published |
| Date | None set |
| New US tariff | No |
| 7.5% rate official | No |
| ERP rate change | No. Do not load 7.5% |
| Procurement action | Rank China-origin steel, aluminum, machinery, and electronics by spend, supplier concentration, and existing duty layers, so the exposure is known before a remedy is. |
Bloomberg via Transport Topics: US delays China excess-capacity tariffs
Duty Reviews Opened October 1 on Aluminum Foil, Magnesium, Transformers, and Wind Towers
CONFIRMED | REVIEWS OPENEDWhat happened
- Five-year reviews: Aluminum foil from Armenia, Brazil, Oman, Russia, and Turkiye, and alloy magnesium from China. Domestic parties have until October 16, 2026 to say they will take part. If none does, an order can be revoked.
- Annual reviews: Wind towers from Canada, Indonesia, and South Korea, large power transformers from South Korea, grinding media and steel flanges from India, tin mill products from Japan, silicon metal from Malaysia, and light-walled pipe from Mexico. Final results are due by August 31, 2027.
Tracker Update -- 90-Day Tariff Risk Calendar → Comment & Hearing Tracker
| Last updated | October 1, 2026 |
| Status | Reviews opened. Existing duties remain |
| Date | October 1, 2026. October 16, 2026 (notice of intent). August 31, 2027 (annual review finals) |
| New US tariff | No |
| Existing orders removed | No |
| Current cash deposits changed | No |
| Supplier-specific future rate risk | Yes |
| ERP rate change | No |
| Procurement action | Mark each affected supplier record as under review, with the period covered. A review can raise or lower that supplier's rate next year. |
Federal Register: initiation of five-year sunset reviews (FR 2026-20161)
Turn the pump parts and can stock entries into a refund file. The Tariff Refund Suite tracks each entry from deposit to refund, so recoverable duty does not get netted against material cost and forgotten. $197
25 Routine Duty Rate Changes on Metals and Industrial Goods
These are company-specific antidumping and countervailing duty updates from September 2026. If you buy the product from the country shown, check the rate against your supplier's name before your next PO.
| Product | Country | What changed | Rate | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steel wire rod | Algeria | Final CVD order | 73.33% | September 15, 2026 |
| Steel racks and parts | China | Final AD rates | 10.34% (Jiangsu JISE, Nova group); 144.50% China-wide | September 15, 2026 |
| Boltless steel shelving | China | Orders continued | No change | September 15, 2026 |
| Aluminum foil | Oman | Final CVD review | 11.38% (Oman Aluminium Rolling) | September 15, 2026 |
| Oil country tubular goods | Austria | Preliminary CVD | 10.17% | September 3, 2026 |
| Oil country tubular goods | South Korea | Final AD review | NEXTEEL 29.94%; SeAH 9.80%; others reviewed 19.87% | September 24, 2026 |
| Oil country tubular goods | Vietnam | Final AD review | SeAH Steel VINA 15.52%; Vietnam-wide 111.47% | September 17, 2026 |
| Heavy-walled rectangular pipe and tube | Mexico | Final AD review | Forza 31.23%; Prolamsa 7.45%; others 16.84% | September 3, 2026 |
| Heavy-walled rectangular pipe and tube | South Korea | Final AD review | 0.00% (Dong-A, HiSteel, Kukje); all others 3.24% | September 21, 2026 |
| Welded line pipe | South Korea | Amended AD after court ruling | SeAH 4.55%; all others 5.39% | September 30, 2026 |
| Large-diameter welded pipe | Turkiye | Final AD review | 1.89% (HDM Celik, Cimtas); all others 1.57% | September 25, 2026 |
| Cold-drawn mechanical tubing | Italy | Final AD review | Dalmine 68.95%; all others 47.87% | September 16, 2026 |
| Welded stainless line and pressure pipe | India, Turkiye | Preliminary CVD postponed | No rate yet | Moved to December 14, 2026 |
| Brass rod | South Korea, South Africa, Brazil | Preliminary AD reviews | 5.22% to 22.07%; no deposit change yet | September 2026 |
| Silicon metal | Bosnia and Herzegovina, Iceland, Malaysia, Kazakhstan | Orders continued | No change | September 15, 2026 |
| Steel nails | South Korea, Malaysia, Oman, Taiwan, Vietnam | Sunset reviews, Commerce stage | No change | September 3, 2026 |
| Small vertical shaft engines | China (Zongshen models 5C65M0, BC70M0) | Final circumvention ruling | In scope, back to July 11, 2025 | September 24, 2026 |
| Aluminum heat sinks | China | Court keeps four models in scope | No change | September 23, 2026 |
| Walk-behind lawn mowers and parts | China, Vietnam | Orders revoked | Duty removed for entries from July 13, 2026 | September 8, 2026 |
| PFA resin | India | Investigation continues | No rate yet | Preliminary CVD October 30, 2026 |
| Chromium trioxide | India, Turkiye | USITC final-phase hearing held | No new rate | September 29, 2026 |
| Aluminum foil | Turkiye | Final CVD review | Assan 2.65%; Panda 3.82% | October 2, 2026 |
| Aluminum composite panels | China (Alumetal panels) | Circumvention inquiry opened | No new rate; earlier entries may be reached | October 2, 2026 |
| Chassis and subassemblies | China | Expedited sunset review | No change; comments due October 13, 2026 | October 1, 2026 |
| Passenger and light truck tires | Vietnam, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand | Full sunset reviews opened | No change | September 25, 2026 |
Tracker Update -- US Tariff Rate Lookup (Free) → Tariff Rate Export
| New US tariff | Yes where a final or preliminary rate is shown. No where the row says no change or no rate yet |
| ERP rate change | Yes for final review and order rates. No for preliminary review margins, sunset reviews, and postponed cases |
| Procurement action | Match the row to your supplier's legal name. A different producer in the same country can carry a different rate |
Check a code in seconds. The free US Tariff Rate Lookup (Free) shows the base and additional duty for an HTS code and country, so you know what to ask your broker. Free
Every Date Ahead, From October 9, 2026 Through May 21, 2027
| Date | What happens |
|---|---|
| October 9, 2026 | CBP refund instructions expected on aluminum can stock; Stelco Hamilton finishing wind-down begins |
| October 13, 2026 | Commerce final CVD target, truck bed covers from China |
| October 14, 2026 | USITC final vote, solar cells; USITC hearing, auto rules of origin |
| October 16, 2026 | USITC final vote, freight rail couplers; EU scrap consultation closes; sunset review notices of intent due |
| October 18, 2026 | Deadline for tariffs under the Russia and Iran sanctions law |
| November 9, 2026 | 178 China tariff exclusions end at 11:59 p.m. ET |
| November 12, 2026 | Preliminary CVD, hydraulic cylinders (China, India, Mexico) |
| November 30, 2026 | Commerce finals, China tin mill products |
| December 4, 2026 | Polysilicon price floors and 15% tariff begin |
| December 31, 2026 | Steel forum members revise governing terms under the Milwaukee Framework |
| January 10, 2027 | US-China truce expires |
| January 26, 2027 | Preliminary AD, hydraulic cylinders (five countries) |
| February 9, 2027 | 25% on the next list of drone components |
| February 11, 2027 | Final determinations, air compressors |
| February 26, 2027 | EU electrical steel safeguard period ends |
| May 21, 2027 | EU scrap export restrictions apply |
Keep every one of these dates in one calendar. The free 90-Day Tariff Risk Calendar has a Tariff Calendar tab for dated events and a Comment & Hearing Tracker for votes and hearings. Free
What to Do With This List
- Replace the Canada table: add the 122 lines, remove the 10, and recheck every 9903.03.15 claim on entries from September 15, 2026.
- Fix copper filings: make smelt and cast countries mandatory fields on HTSUS 8544.42.10, 8544.42.20, 8544.42.90, and 8544.49.10.
- Start two refund lists: unliquidated can stock entries from the 17 countries, and pump parts and plastics entries filed July 1 through September 22, 2026.
- Ask who made it: get the producer and exporter for tin mill steel, rebar, air compressors, truck bed covers, graphite electrodes, and rail couplers.
- Map before November 12, 2026: hydraulic cylinders by producer, part number, and requalification lead time.
- Keep proposals out of the rate table: refined copper, the 14-product Section 232 list, the 7.5% China figure, and the 50% Canadian auto threat stay in scenarios.
Quick questions, plain answers
Which tariffs on steel and aluminum changed in September 2026?
The largest change was Canada. On September 15, 2026 the 50% tariff list on Canadian goods added 122 HTS classifications, including steel structures, aluminum profiles, and welding inputs, and it stacks on Section 232. Final duty orders on rebar from Bulgaria, Egypt, and Vietnam took effect September 18, 2026, and preliminary deposits of 130.17% and 66.61% began on Chinese tin mill steel.
Did the Milwaukee Framework raise US steel tariffs?
No. The Milwaukee Framework, adopted September 30, 2026, commits steel-producing governments to share melt-and-pour data and consider coordinated trade cases. It does not impose a US tariff, change a Section 232 rate, or create a cash deposit rate.
Is there a new tariff on copper?
Not a new rate. Since September 14, 2026, copper wire and cable entries under four HTS lines are rejected in ACE if the smelt and cast countries are missing. A 15% tariff on refined copper from January 2027 has been reported as under consideration, but no decision has been issued.
Can I get a refund on aluminum can stock duties?
Yes, if the entry is unliquidated and the product meets the written description. Commerce removed qualifying can stock from the orders on 17 countries on September 24, 2026 and intends to send CBP instructions by about October 9, 2026. Entries that already liquidated are not covered.
Are hydraulic cylinders subject to new duties?
Not yet. The USITC voted yes at the preliminary stage on September 30, 2026 for cylinders from Canada, China, India, Mexico, and South Korea. The first possible cash deposits come with Commerce's preliminary countervailing duty determinations on November 12, 2026.
Does the Canada import ban cover cars and auto parts?
No. The import ban that began September 29, 2026 covers whey, molasses, non-alcoholic beer, alcoholic beverages, and motorcycles over 800cc under HTS 8711.50.00. A separate 50% tariff on Canadian cars and parts from January 2027 has been threatened but has no legal instrument.
Six decisions for the operating team
- Procurement: Record the producer, exporter, and producing plant for every metal, part, and machine you import, because every duty case in September 2026 set rates by company.
- Finance: Hold aluminum can stock and pump parts refunds in a separate recovery account, and book no savings from any proposal or announced deal.
- Trade compliance: Load the September 15, 2026 Canada list, the rebar orders, and the preliminary deposits on tin mill steel, air compressors, truck bed covers, and graphite electrodes.
- Customs broker: Confirm smelt and cast countries on copper wire and cable entries, and apply the rebar gap period to entries from September 9 through September 17, 2026.
- Supply chain: Ask Canadian steel suppliers about production after October 9, 2026, and finish hydraulic cylinder mapping before November 12, 2026.
- Leadership: Treat the Milwaukee Framework, the refined copper tariff, and the Canadian auto threat as planning inputs, not as rates.
Editorial note: this tracker consolidates my daily briefings, alerts, and real-time application notes from September 1 through October 1, 2026. Every status is as of October 1, 2026. Where the underlying notes disagreed, this edition uses the later, corrected reading: the China exclusion cutoff is 11:59 p.m. ET on November 9, 2026; the China tin mill final date is November 30, 2026; the Algeria order covers steel wire rod; the September 29, 2026 Canada import ban covers motorcycles over 800cc and not cars or auto parts; and the solar cell case is still awaiting its October 14, 2026 vote. Rates in duty cases are set company by company, so confirm the rate for your own producer and exporter before acting.
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About the Author
This procurement tariff intelligence analysis is authored by Ramie Virk, a procurement and tariff risk strategist with 20+ years of hands-on experience managing global sourcing, trade compliance, and tariff exposure across complex supply chains.
Ramie has led procurement and trade risk response during major disruption events, including:
- Large-scale tariff escalations and retaliatory trade actions
- Energy and industrial supply chain crises
- ERP-driven sourcing and compliance programs (SAP and Oracle environments)
- High-value capital and operational procurement with tariff and duty exposure
Her work focuses on translating tariff policy, trade negotiations, and geopolitical signals into actionable guidance for procurement leaders, finance teams, and executives, without speculation or panic-driven decision-making.
Ramie publishes ongoing tariff and trade intelligence through Career Chronicles, combining real-world procurement experience with continuous monitoring of global trade policy, market reaction, and institutional developments.
This commentary is intended for educational and strategic planning purposes and reflects publicly available information as of the publication date.
A note from Ramie Virk
As the author, I provide you with your source for weekly Procurement and Tariff Intelligence™ that delivers news hitting headlines and affecting compliance from The Procurement Perspective. I educate and report on Executive Orders, compliance, and regulations that impact your bottom line.
- Ramie Virk: Author of Procurement and Tariff Intelligence Newsletter™ | The Procurement Perspective™